Once upon a time there lived a small, humble grey mouse – he lived in a church: he was very quiet and slept for months at a time because nothing much was happening in his world. One day, however, he woke to discover the church had a new roof and all the draughty doors and windows were being fixed. No longer the quiet church mouse – he was the mouse that roared. Vivante is similarly asleep – there were no sales, no pendings, no new listings and only five active listings. Only two have had their price reduced, more out of impatience probably than comparison. The average time on the market for the five active listings is now 199 days, a median of 143 and high/low of 377/87. Similarly their prices per square foot are – average $298, median $300, high/low $367/$245. Sales statistics don’t exist that are younger than 4 months and, when current, those are the most reliable pointers as they tell us where the market is. With such wide margins and no volume to tighten things, we must continue to wait developments beyond the market’s control. But, like the mouse that roared, watch closely for bullish signs; particularly watch for the installation of our new roofs to gather pace, listen to the COA board and our litigators for the reactions of our insurers and you might see a kindling of interest begin to burn brighter.

Vivante MLS Review 1 Oct 2023

There were no new listings in August – traditionally on of the quieter months anyway, but this year interest in Vivante is comatose. Neither were there any sales and no listings are pending closure, the third month in a row. One listing expired, 8934, (2,338sf) was listed at $715,000 and one has been reduced, 98217 (1,915sf) to $469,000. I really don’t have much to add again so let’s take a look at the market data for Charlotte County’s condos and townhouses for July 2023 vs: July 2022. Closed sales were down 27.5% to 66: median sale price was down 2.6% to $297,000: average sale price was down 8.9% to $312,486: median percent of list price received was down 3.2% to 95.7%: median time to contract was up 135.7% to 33 days: new pending sales were up 16.9% to 90: new listings were up 11.3% t0 102: active listings were up 120.6% to 417 and the months supply rose to 5.6 from 1.7. I am confused by what the FOMC seems to be indicating for interest rates, but maybe my confusion is due to the myriad of directional opinions of commentating economists. I think the Fed has increased interest rates enough as a recession seems to be absent from the worry list – the economy continues to strengthen. At the risk of eternal repetition, I think Vivante will remain quiet until we see action in season and more appearance of our repairs; meanwhile both sellers and buyers are stymied by mortgage rates which are now close to 7½%. Sellers don’t want to pay off their debt at 3% and buyers don’t want to pay 7.5% – it’s that simple. Meanwhile, Idalia passed us by some 200 miles into the Gulf, but rainfall in the outer bands was considerable – 5+ inches was recorded at PGD.
Vivante MLS Review 1 Sep 2023

Once again there was only one new listing in July – 9637 (2,106sf) came to the market at $575,000. There were no sales in July and there are no listings pending closure. Vivante is still extraordinarily quiet so I really don’t have much to add; instead, let’s take a look at the larger picture of current statistics and influences. These are Charlotte County details for condos and townhouses for June 2023 vs: June 2022. Closed sales were down 13.6% to 102: median sale price was up 13.9% to $338,750: average sale price was up 12.3% to $348,223: median percent of list price received was down 4.5% to 95.5%: median time to contract was up 277.8% to 34 days: pending sales were down 23.4% to 72: new listings were up 12.7% t0 133: active listings were up 183.2% to 456 and the months supply rose to 6 from 1.5. Florida Realtors publish to members regularly and one of their latest articles noted “Consumer confidence hit its highest level since July 2021 after the second straight month of increases. In July, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 117.0, up from 110.1 in June. The Present Situation Index – consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – improved to 160.0 from 155.3 month-to-month. The Expectations Index – consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – improved to 88.3 from 80.0 in June.” Plus, inflation’s at 3%, jobs added in June were 209,000, the unemployment rate is 3.6% and GDP growth is 2.4%. I think the FOMC has now increased interest rates enough as a serious recession seems to be cooling embers at best. I’ve been suggesting that activity in Vivante will start again when we see rebuilding fully underway and we’re certainly experiencing the start of that now, but it’s not yet percolated through to activity. My view hasn’t changed and the positive market and economic influences I’ve noted above should certainly help us along.

Note please – I’ve added a few down arrows to some list prices to show how many times they have actually been reduced.

MLS Review 1 Aug 2023

One new listing in June – 8823 (1,595sf) is active at $479,000. There was one sale in June – 9639 (1,698sf) raised $460,000. There are no listings pending closure. The market for Vivante is in a funk and there are a couple of good reasons. Firstly, we have been waiting for some reconstruction to start and now we are beginning to see that happen. Several buildings have had their roof tiles removed and that team is moving along to other buildings. Drying in and drip edge work is next, followed by city inspections and then the metal arrives – great news – we are on the way. Following the roofs, window sealing, then lanai repairs. It’s still going to take time, but as that goes by, Vivante will shine. Secondly, we are in the Summer months which, as we all know, are slow; sellers (I don’t know how many) may be waiting for a better time to sell and buyers are sitting on their cash or waiting for rates to fall. Interestingly, sellers also seem to be waiting for rates to fall – according to a recent article, 92% of today’s mortgages are funded at under 6%, 82% under 5%, 62% under 4% and 23% are under 3% – so sellers are looking at substantially higher monthly payments if they move now and borrow anew. Elliot Eisenberg (the “Bowtie Economist”) suggests that as inflation continues to fall (from 4% to 3% over the next year) the FOMC needs to do nothing to maintain a restrictive position – a further 1% fall in inflation equates to four 25 basis point increases. That tells me that we’ll see activity recover from the doldrums soon, especially when Vivante comes out of the ICU. Happy 4th of July!

Vivante MLS Review 1 Jul 2023

One new listing in May – 9724 (1,485sf) is active at $545,000. One sale in May – 8722 (2,348sf) raised $730,000. This sale price was deeply discounted by $119,000 from its original list price. With so little activity while we start the reconstruction of Vivante, these two “values” clearly show how, in an apathetic market, there can be wide gaps between the extremes of the market – one of the smallest units with a courtyard view priced at $367psf and one of the larger harbour units sold for $311psf. Both are quite distant from recent history. There is one listing pending closure – 9639 (1,698sf) priced at $480,000, is slated to close on 9th June. Overall, the market is really quiet and lacklustre, and neither sellers nor buyers have control; with such a lack of volumes, anomalies appear in the Review – for example, the change in the average list price for Boca is substantially affect by one listing. I think we can expect much of the same quietude as reconstruction gets underway. When we begin to see the renewed Vivante emerge, activity should pick up and I expect we’ll see a strong recovery in both interest and values – maybe not immediately, but I think both will ensue.

Vivante MLS Review 1 Jun 2023

Unfortunately, there are criminals about trying to steal your vacant lot, and even your home. This article from the legal team at Florida Realtors® is worth reading.

FR Article on Fake Title 15 May 2023

All four sales due in April closed on schedule; they were 9043 (1,595sf) which sold for $425,000, 8543 (2,338sf) which sold for $799,000, 9543 (1,698sf) which sold for $475,000 and 9836 (1,485sf) which raised $372,000. There were no new listings in April. There are only two pending listings; 8722 (2,348sf) was listed at $814,900 and is slated to close on 15th May and 9639 (1,698sf) was listed at $480,000 and is expected to close on 16th June. All their contract dates were recent, as with last month, but their numbers indicate a continued slowing in activity. This, of course, coincides with the end of the 2022/2023 snowbird season. I expected there might be a few more listings at the end of the season, but that hasn’t happened – maybe owners realise that, once repaired, Vivante might/could/will command higher values. The number of active listings today is nine, just 2.6% of the total, two in Boca and seven in Bella. One listing has been increased in price and three have been reduced. Overall, the market is quiet, neither sellers nor buyers have an edge and it still seems to me to be fairly balanced but without much substance. The economists expect interest rates to rise at this week’s FOMC meeting, but all ears will be on what the Fed has to say for the next move and their general view of the economy.

Vivante MLS Review 1 May 2023

There were two sales recorded in March, they were 9929 (1,698sf) which sold for $505,000 and 9527 (2,106sf) which raised $522,500. There was one new listing, 9733 (2,106sf) was listed at $624,000. There are four pending listings; 9043 (1,595sf) was listed at $425,000 and is slated to close on 3rd April, 8543 (2,338sf) was listed at $799,000 and planned to close on 15th April, 9543 (1,698sf) was listed at $485,000 and should close on 21st April and 9836 (1,485sf), listed at $384,900 is expected to close also on 21st April. All their contract dates were in 2023 indicating that buyers are still about and active, but not at the same levels as the last two years. The number of active listings today is eleven, 3.2% of the total, three in Boca and eight in Bella. One listing has been increased in price and four have been reduced. Overall, the market is still generally quiet. The rest of the potential buyers who are still about are hesitant. They may be missing an opportunity as we move into Vivante’s rebuilding stages with interest rates potentially passing their peak in the Summer. Finally, Charlotte County’s year on year condo statistics in February show closed sales down 30.1%, the average sale price up 6.7%, new pendings down 26.4%, new listings up 14.5% and inventory up 350% to 297 units giving a more  normal 3.4 months inventory vs: half a month a year ago. Neither sellers nor buyers have an edge, the market seems to me to be fairly balanced.

Vivante MLS Review 1 Apr 2023

There were no sales recorded in February. There were two new listings, 9543 (1,698sf) was listed at $485,000 and 8531 (2,398sf) came on at $879,900. There are three currently pending listings, 9043 (1,595sf) was listed at $425,000 and is slated to close on 3rd April and 8543 (2,338sf) was listed at $799,900 and should close on 15th April. Also, 9929 (1,698sf), priced at $525,000, has gone pending, but no closing date is yet available – that’s the listing that was on the Royal Palm Coast MLS in Lee County. Interestingly, 9043 was only on the market for 1 day, indicating solid interest, or perhaps an attractive price level. The number of active listings today is eleven, up two from January, four in Boca and seven in Bella; two listings have been reduced in price and one increased, so I wouldn’t say there’s a trend either way at the moment. Overall, the market is still quiet and buyers are hesitant; it will probably remain so until we see more substantial and visible repairs post Ian, not only at Vivante, but also generally. One final comment from Florida Realtors on the monthly UF Study, published yesterday, you can read it here.

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Vivante MLS Review 1 Mar 2023