There are two pending listings, 8742 (2,338sf) was listed at $679,990 (originally $718,000) and is slated to close today, and 9637 (2,106sf) was listed at $399,990 (originally $575,000) and should close on 5th June. There were five new listings in April; 99415 (1,698sf) at $449,000, 9944 (1,485sf) at $389,900, 9824 (1,485sf) at $397,000, 9026 (1,595sf) at $448,000 and 9923 (2,106sf) at $448,900. There was one sale recorded in April, 9931 (1,915sf) closed for $430,000 yesterday; that’s three this year and only four over the past twelve months. It’s getting to a stage where I think it’s becoming very attractive to wait – some of these discounts to recent market levels more than fully recognise the “Citizens” problem. In recent economic comment, Florida Realtors recently commented that consumer sentiment for the next five years among Floridians ticked up 1.3 points in April to 73.3 from March’s revised figure of 72: and at the end of March, expectations for three rate cuts in 2024 were dashed by April’s stubborn inflation figures.

Post the NAR Settlement in March, 2024, buyers will be required to enter an Exclusive Buyer Broker Agreement (EBBA), which, like the seller’s Listing Agreement, should provide clarity to the buyer/broker relationship and define the level of compensation payable to the buyer’s broker at closing. Commission splits will no longer be entered onto listings on Stellar MLS; the buyer will be responsible to pay the broker the amount agreed to in the EBBA, but it will be the buyer’s broker’s duty to seek compensation from the seller through the listing broker. If the seller agrees to pay at a lower rate than the agreed level in the EBBA, then the buyer will pay the difference at closing. Transparency is the desired result, although, in my opinion, this settlement has only led to misinformation and confusion. Please go to my About Me tab to read my 15th April Blog “National Association of Realtors Class Action Settlement”. The two articles I’ve linked there will give some clarity to the situation.

Vivante MLS Review 1 May 2024

Two listings went pending in March, 8742 (2,338sf) was listed at $679,990 (originally $718,000) and is slated to close on 1st May, and 9637 (2,106sf) was listed at $399,990 (originally $575,000) and should close on 5th June. Both were substantially reduced as you can see and found buyers; they are about and looking for bargains. There were three new listings in March; 9449 (1,698sf) at $449,000, 9748 (1,915sf) also at $449,000 and 9944 (1,485sf) at $389,900. There were no sales recorded in March; so far there have only been two this year, and remember there were no closings in the second half of 2023. Prices continue to be cut and I suspect this trend will continue softly while the financials at Vivante remain subject to litigation against Citizens. Trying to discount a future potential assessment, a number that we know is unknown (a Rumsfeld conundrum perhaps!), is somewhere between guesswork and impossible. The valuation question is – have prices been cut enough already, some by over $100,000? There is an upside to all this though; what do you think might happen to the current low prices if the litigation results in even a partial settlement? As last month, the US economy remains buoyant and looks likely to remain so for a while – enough to encourage the FOMC to forecast three interest rate reductions this year.

Vivante MLS Review 1 Apr 2024

There were no new listings in February but one listing went pending, 9637 (2,106sf) was listed at $399,990 and is slated to close on 25th March. Two sales were recorded in February; 8545 (2,338sf) closed at $625,000 ($267psf) and 9025 (2,538sf) closed at $600,000 ($236psf). Just these two sales have materially affected the averages as they are the first closings since June 2023; they are defining where future closings could, or perhaps should, be valued. Prices continue to fall; of the 14 active listings, 12 have now been cut, some multiple times. Please see the attached study which takes a look at the prices that have been reduced recently, including February’s pending and two sales. I suspect this trend will continue while the situation at Vivante remains cloudy. Good news still prevails with the economy though: inflation, economic growth and incomes are in beneficial territory. In February, Floridian consumer sentiment increased for a fifth month in a row to 74.1, up 1.5 points from 72.6 in January. In those strong five months, FL sentiment recovered over half way back from the low point of 60.8 reached, mid pandemic, in May 2022. It is great to see Vivante sales begin again, but buyers are (and have to be made) aware of the difficult situation prevailing here.

There were two new listings in January taking the total to 16, or 5% of the 342 units here. 98412 (1,915sf) is listed at $490,000 and 8936 (2,398sf) at $815,000. Good news, one listing went pending; 9025 (2,538sf) was listed at $630,000 and is slated to close on 26th February. No sales were recorded in January. Asking prices continue to fall; nine of the 16 active listings have been reduced. The average is -8%, the median is -4% and the smallest and largest cuts are -2% and -22%. I suspect that trend will continue while the situation at Vivante remains unfinished. The FOMC left the Fed funds rate at 5.375% yesterday; their statement didn’t suggest there are more interest rate hikes to come but neither are policymakers saying anything about cuts quite yet; some economists elsewhere are looking to June. The FOMC chairman reiterated that inflation is still too high and added that a March rate cut isn’t likely. The economy continues to beat expectations; last week’s economic data showed GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. And consumer confidence in Florida is at a 2 year high. Recession, often talked about as imminent over the past 3 years, has disappeared beyond the horizon; let’s hope it stays there.

Vivante MLS Review 1 Feb 2024

There were three new listings in December; 9931 (1,915sf) is listed at $549,000, 9844  (1,485sf) at $424,000 and 98210 (1,485sf) at $425,000. As has been the case for a half year now, pendings and sales are non-existent. In addition, there are now fairly regular price reductions, three in December; 9844 by $15,000 (-3½%), 9025 by $20,000 (-3%) and 8742 by $25,000 (-3½%). Individual reasoning cannot be determined, but it’s likely that the 2024 fees and the uncertainty of when our repairs will be completed were strong influences. The 30 year mortgage rate is likely to drop through 6.5% soon, down from 7.8% at the end of October. Two years ago, of course, it was just over 3%, so there’s still considerable room for further falls. However, the gap is still discouraging sellers as they would, even now, have to refinance at double their current levels – I recently read that approximately 92% of US mortgages are currently funded at around 3%. Buyers too are hoping that rates fall further. Some leading economists are forecasting an increase in housing inventory in 2024 and therefore better opportunities for both sellers and buyers to act. Wages are in positive territory, coming in at +5.2% in November over last year, compared to inflation at an annual rate of 3.1%. The drop in inflation has been substantial since 2021 when it was at an annual rate of 7%. The economy is in good shape as we enter 2024. Happy new year!

There were two new listings in November; 8742 (2,338sf) was listed at $718,000 and 99412 (1,915sf) is active at $500,000. There are zero pendings again and there were no closings in November – the last sale was 9639 (1,698sf) which closed at $460,000 on 9th June, nearly 6 months ago. The National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, Lawrence Yun, predicts that home sales will rise by 15% next year, and by Spring, mortgage rates will hover in the 6% to 7% range; today they’re at 7.2%. Whilst rates were in the late 7%s and early to mid 8%s, mortgage applications dropped to the lowest levels for about 28 years. Vivante, of course, is in a different and particular position while we wait for clearances to complete the rejuvenation. Progress is being steadily maintained and Vivante is beginning to show well as almost all buildings are close to the completion of their new roofs. I have definitely seen an increase in showings, but buyers have to become comfortable with the new COA fees for 2024 and that will take time to digest.

Vivante MLS Review 1 Dec 2023

At last, some movement, although, unfortunately, only new listings. There were four in October, 9736 (1,485sf) is priced at $479,000 ($300psf), 9727 (1,698sf) is priced at $478,900 ($282psf), 9742 (1,915sf) is priced at $524,900 ($274psf) and 8934 (2,338sf) is listed at $775,000 ($331psf). There are zero pendings again and there were no closings in October – none since June. We are at the outset of the 2023/24 snowbird season. It is quite normal to see increasing listings as some owners plan to stay warm for one last winter before returning up north with their proceeds. Florida is still a leading destination; new residents are constantly flowing into the state. In 2022, it is estimated that the population grew to 22.2mm with 444,000 coming here and 275,000 leaving – a net inflow of about 463 new people a day. That’s one of the influences keeping Florida home values somewhat more buoyant than elsewhere in the country. The US economy grew at 4.9% in the third quarter, dramatically beating expectations. Most commentators were expecting a slowdown, only to be thwarted yet again. Inflation is too high and certainly mortgage rates are too high (today a tickle over 8% nationally) to attract sellers to dump their 3% loans and buyers to borrow. Buyers would be wise to ask sellers, in exchange for paying the asking price, to help by buying down their monthly payments for a year or two – which is good for sellers too, of course. In a couple of years it might be possible to refinance today’s expensive debt at lower rates again. Meanwhile, progress is being steadily maintained in our recovery at Vivante and the new roofs look wonderful.

Vivante MLS Review 1 Nov 2023