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Two listings went pending in March, 8742 (2,338sf) was listed at $679,990 (originally $718,000) and is slated to close on 1st May, and 9637 (2,106sf) was listed at $399,990 (originally $575,000) and should close on 5th June. Both were substantially reduced as you can see and found buyers; they are about and looking for bargains. There were three new listings in March; 9449 (1,698sf) at $449,000, 9748 (1,915sf) also at $449,000 and 9944 (1,485sf) at $389,900. There were no sales recorded in March; so far there have only been two this year, and remember there were no closings in the second half of 2023. Prices continue to be cut and I suspect this trend will continue softly while the financials at Vivante remain subject to litigation against Citizens. Trying to discount a future potential assessment, a number that we know is unknown (a Rumsfeld conundrum perhaps!), is somewhere between guesswork and impossible. The valuation question is – have prices been cut enough already, some by over $100,000? There is an upside to all this though; what do you think might happen to the current low prices if the litigation results in even a partial settlement? As last month, the US economy remains buoyant and looks likely to remain so for a while – enough to encourage the FOMC to forecast three interest rate reductions this year.
Artificial Intelligence and Real Estate, 29th March, 2024.
Artificial Intelligence is with us. It will bring many benefits but may also bring danger. Our worldly authorities are searching for ways to mitigate against damaging and malicious misuse. I have read recently that AI is already being used to imitate and interrupt realtor to client communications, appearing to be the normal course of business. The article mentioned voice and written e-communications – for example, calling a realtor’s clients using an AI created voice that matches the real realtor or writing an email purporting to be from the real person. Either could cause substantial financial loss. Real estate companies may be large, but their offices are local, as are clients, and with large value personal deals in a potentially less than sophisticated security environment, they can become attractive targets to hackers and thieves. Much like the current advices to clients about wiring monies for a closing, which is to call the escrow agent on a known phone number and ask for wiring instructions immediately prior to making the transfer and not to rely on any instructions received in any other way, it’s becoming more and more important to be aware and careful in our business (and even personal) communications. We must all exercise caution and react to anything that makes us feel mildly wary or gives us even the slightest concern – “something seems out of place, I don’t know what, it’s just a feeling”. Be intuitive and react to that feeling. How can I help? Firstly, my voice is fairly distinctive, but an AI version may have some sounds or use words that raise a doubt because they may not be the way I phrase or emphasise sentences. If you feel in any doubt, even slightly, ask “me” a question only you and I know the answer to, or hang up and call me. I promise I won’t be mad if you cut me off if it really was me calling! In written communications, I will always, always, always use English spelling (colour, favourite, programme, normality, sanitise et al.) and I’ll definitely always write dates day, month, year. If you ever feel something might be awry, call, text or email me using the contact information you have for me and know to be good. By being aware and reacting to the smallest inkling of a potential falsity, we just might avoid a financial catastrophe together.
Property Deed Fraud, 7th March, 2024.
Property Deed Fraud is growing in Florida and state and county officers are urging property owners to protect themselves. There’s been a big spike in this type if fraud here in Florida because interest in real estate in the Sunshine State is growing and so popular that fraudulent activity has increased alongside. You may have seen or heard in recent news articles that vacant land is particularly susceptible to this cheating, but it’s not exclusive to that type of property. Over half Florida’s real estate agents directly experienced this in their business in the second half of 2023. It happens when a fraudster steals an owner’s identity to obtain title and then sells the property without the owner’s knowledge – and once gone, it could be a serious blow to the pocket book and extraordinarily difficult to reverse – if at all. You can protect yourself to some extent by signing up to Charlotte County’s property fraud alert programme, which sends out emails and texts if there’s activity on property you own that is detected at county level. It’s an early warning system rather than a guarantee. All of Florida’s 67 counties have some sort of property fraud alert programme. For more information and to sign up in Charlotte County, click here.
A big thank you to Florida Realtors® for bringing this offering to my attention.
Monthly Vivante Review, 1st March, 2024.
There were no new listings in February but one listing went pending, 9637 (2,106sf) was listed at $399,990 and is slated to close on 25th March. Two sales were recorded in February; 8545 (2,338sf) closed at $625,000 ($267psf) and 9025 (2,538sf) closed at $600,000 ($236psf). Just these two sales have materially affected the averages as they are the first closings since June 2023; they are defining where future closings could, or perhaps should, be valued. Prices continue to fall; of the 14 active listings, 12 have now been cut, some multiple times. Please see the attached study which takes a look at the prices that have been reduced recently, including February’s pending and two sales. I suspect this trend will continue while the situation at Vivante remains cloudy. Good news still prevails with the economy though: inflation, economic growth and incomes are in beneficial territory. In February, Floridian consumer sentiment increased for a fifth month in a row to 74.1, up 1.5 points from 72.6 in January. In those strong five months, FL sentiment recovered over half way back from the low point of 60.8 reached, mid pandemic, in May 2022. It is great to see Vivante sales begin again, but buyers are (and have to be made) aware of the difficult situation prevailing here.
Monthly Vivante Review, 1st February, 2024.
There were two new listings in January taking the total to 16, or 5% of the 342 units here. 98412 (1,915sf) is listed at $490,000 and 8936 (2,398sf) at $815,000. Good news, one listing went pending; 9025 (2,538sf) was listed at $630,000 and is slated to close on 26th February. No sales were recorded in January. Asking prices continue to fall; nine of the 16 active listings have been reduced. The average is -8%, the median is -4% and the smallest and largest cuts are -2% and -22%. I suspect that trend will continue while the situation at Vivante remains unfinished. The FOMC left the Fed funds rate at 5.375% yesterday; their statement didn’t suggest there are more interest rate hikes to come but neither are policymakers saying anything about cuts quite yet; some economists elsewhere are looking to June. The FOMC chairman reiterated that inflation is still too high and added that a March rate cut isn’t likely. The economy continues to beat expectations; last week’s economic data showed GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. And consumer confidence in Florida is at a 2 year high. Recession, often talked about as imminent over the past 3 years, has disappeared beyond the horizon; let’s hope it stays there.
Monthly Vivante Review, 1st January, 2024.
There were three new listings in December; 9931 (1,915sf) is listed at $549,000, 9844 (1,485sf) at $424,000 and 98210 (1,485sf) at $425,000. As has been the case for a half year now, pendings and sales are non-existent. In addition, there are now fairly regular price reductions, three in December; 9844 by $15,000 (-3½%), 9025 by $20,000 (-3%) and 8742 by $25,000 (-3½%). Individual reasoning cannot be determined, but it’s likely that the 2024 fees and the uncertainty of when our repairs will be completed were strong influences. The 30 year mortgage rate is likely to drop through 6.5% soon, down from 7.8% at the end of October. Two years ago, of course, it was just over 3%, so there’s still considerable room for further falls. However, the gap is still discouraging sellers as they would, even now, have to refinance at double their current levels – I recently read that approximately 92% of US mortgages are currently funded at around 3%. Buyers too are hoping that rates fall further. Some leading economists are forecasting an increase in housing inventory in 2024 and therefore better opportunities for both sellers and buyers to act. Wages are in positive territory, coming in at +5.2% in November over last year, compared to inflation at an annual rate of 3.1%. The drop in inflation has been substantial since 2021 when it was at an annual rate of 7%. The economy is in good shape as we enter 2024. Happy new year!
Monthly Vivante Review, 1st December, 2023.
There were two new listings in November; 8742 (2,338sf) was listed at $718,000 and 99412 (1,915sf) is active at $500,000. There are zero pendings again and there were no closings in November – the last sale was 9639 (1,698sf) which closed at $460,000 on 9th June, nearly 6 months ago. The National Association of Realtors’ chief economist, Lawrence Yun, predicts that home sales will rise by 15% next year, and by Spring, mortgage rates will hover in the 6% to 7% range; today they’re at 7.2%. Whilst rates were in the late 7%s and early to mid 8%s, mortgage applications dropped to the lowest levels for about 28 years. Vivante, of course, is in a different and particular position while we wait for clearances to complete the rejuvenation. Progress is being steadily maintained and Vivante is beginning to show well as almost all buildings are close to the completion of their new roofs. I have definitely seen an increase in showings, but buyers have to become comfortable with the new COA fees for 2024 and that will take time to digest.
Monthly Vivante Review, 1st November, 2023.
At last, some movement, although, unfortunately, only new listings. There were four in October, 9736 (1,485sf) is priced at $479,000 ($300psf), 9727 (1,698sf) is priced at $478,900 ($282psf), 9742 (1,915sf) is priced at $524,900 ($274psf) and 8934 (2,338sf) is listed at $775,000 ($331psf). There are zero pendings again and there were no closings in October – none since June. We are at the outset of the 2023/24 snowbird season. It is quite normal to see increasing listings as some owners plan to stay warm for one last winter before returning up north with their proceeds. Florida is still a leading destination; new residents are constantly flowing into the state. In 2022, it is estimated that the population grew to 22.2mm with 444,000 coming here and 275,000 leaving – a net inflow of about 463 new people a day. That’s one of the influences keeping Florida home values somewhat more buoyant than elsewhere in the country. The US economy grew at 4.9% in the third quarter, dramatically beating expectations. Most commentators were expecting a slowdown, only to be thwarted yet again. Inflation is too high and certainly mortgage rates are too high (today a tickle over 8% nationally) to attract sellers to dump their 3% loans and buyers to borrow. Buyers would be wise to ask sellers, in exchange for paying the asking price, to help by buying down their monthly payments for a year or two – which is good for sellers too, of course. In a couple of years it might be possible to refinance today’s expensive debt at lower rates again. Meanwhile, progress is being steadily maintained in our recovery at Vivante and the new roofs look wonderful.
Monthly Vivante Review, 1st October, 2023.
Once upon a time there lived a small, humble grey mouse – he lived in a church: he was very quiet and slept for months at a time because nothing much was happening in his world. One day, however, he woke to discover the church had a new roof and all the draughty doors and windows were being fixed. No longer the quiet church mouse – he was the mouse that roared. Vivante is similarly asleep – there were no sales, no pendings, no new listings and only five active listings. Only two have had their price reduced, more out of impatience probably than comparison. The average time on the market for the five active listings is now 199 days, a median of 143 and high/low of 377/87. Similarly their prices per square foot are – average $298, median $300, high/low $367/$245. Sales statistics don’t exist that are younger than 4 months and, when current, those are the most reliable pointers as they tell us where the market is. With such wide margins and no volume to tighten things, we must continue to wait developments beyond the market’s control. But, like the mouse that roared, watch closely for bullish signs; particularly watch for the installation of our new roofs to gather pace, listen to the COA board and our litigators for the reactions of our insurers and you might see a kindling of interest begin to burn brighter.
Monthly Vivante Review, 1st September, 2023.
There were no new listings in August – traditionally on of the quieter months anyway, but this year interest in Vivante is comatose. Neither were there any sales and no listings are pending closure, the third month in a row. One listing expired, 8934, (2,338sf) was listed at $715,000 and one has been reduced, 98217 (1,915sf) to $469,000. I really don’t have much to add again so let’s take a look at the market data for Charlotte County’s condos and townhouses for July 2023 vs: July 2022. Closed sales were down 27.5% to 66: median sale price was down 2.6% to $297,000: average sale price was down 8.9% to $312,486: median percent of list price received was down 3.2% to 95.7%: median time to contract was up 135.7% to 33 days: new pending sales were up 16.9% to 90: new listings were up 11.3% t0 102: active listings were up 120.6% to 417 and the months supply rose to 5.6 from 1.7. I am confused by what the FOMC seems to be indicating for interest rates, but maybe my confusion is due to the myriad of directional opinions of commentating economists. I think the Fed has increased interest rates enough as a recession seems to be absent from the worry list – the economy continues to strengthen. At the risk of eternal repetition, I think Vivante will remain quiet until we see action in season and more appearance of our repairs; meanwhile both sellers and buyers are stymied by mortgage rates which are now close to 7½%. Sellers don’t want to pay off their debt at 3% and buyers don’t want to pay 7.5% – it’s that simple. Meanwhile, Idalia passed us by some 200 miles into the Gulf, but rainfall in the outer bands was considerable – 5+ inches was recorded at PGD.
Vivante MLS Review 1 Sep 2023
